A Framework for Constructing Agent-based Models for Evaluating Emergency Evacuation Procedures; A Case Study Applied to Egaleo, Greece
Résumé
Planning and preparing for evacuations of populations during emergencies requires a multifaceted approach covering the essential concerns of understanding hazard risk, preparing critical infrastructure for egress and shelter, determining the makeup of the population at risk, understanding how that population will respond in the event of an emergency, and developing robust evacuation procedures and policies. While tools and methods often exist for understanding these concerns separately, these do not allow decision-makers to systematically understand their interconnections and the implication of change in one dimension on the other. To address this challenge, we introduce a comprehensive framework designed to assist emergency management decision-makers in evaluating community evacuation plans. Central to our approach is the use of micro-simulations that model known human behaviors in emergencies for evacuating populations. Our framework, encompassing the five dimensions of Infrastructure, Population Demographics, Evacuation Policy, Hazard Model, and Human Behavior Model, allows users to systematically build "what-if" scenarios that introduce changes in different dimensions to test the robustness of evacuation policies. We present a case study of employing this framework in Egaleo, Greece, a seismic-prone region, as part of the European HORIZON project C2IMPRESS, in collaboration with local government. We showcase the effectiveness and relevance of our approach in enhancing emergency response strategies within dynamic and high-stakes environments.
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